Correct Option (D)
The problem describes a scenario where one host is selected "by picking lots" each month for a period of one year (12 months). This method constitutes a random selection process. In such a process, each of the twelve club members has an independent and equal probability of being chosen as host in any given month, irrespective of previous selections.
Consequently, over the course of twelve months, a particular member's selection frequency is subject to probabilistic variation. It is possible for a member to be chosen multiple times, exactly once, or not at all. Therefore, the precise number of dinners a specific member will host cannot be predicted with certainty.
Incorrect Options:
Options (A) One, (B) Zero, and (C) Three propose a fixed or predetermined number of times a particular member would host. However, the selection mechanism is explicitly stated as random ("by picking lots"). This inherent randomness means there is no guarantee that any individual member will host a specific number of times (e.g., exactly once, zero times, or three times) over the year. The actual outcome for any member is variable and dependent on chance, rendering any specific numerical prediction inaccurate.